As Shaky As A Fiddler On The Roof

While I don't write about it extremely often, theatre preoccupies my mind. For most of my life, even since I stopped performing, I have been around theatre people, rehearsing, attending shows, and talking in bar booths about it. For a number of reasons, I worry about the future of this art form. More on that another time.

For right now, I want to talk about how current events may have direct downstream impacts on the epicenter of the theatrical world, Broadway. While I am all for disentangling what is thought of as "theatre" from Broadway's conception of it, Broadway is the flagship behind which every sincere high school production, every community theatre revue, and every cabaret show trails. We'd be worse off without the engine of creativity, talent, and invention done within a few blocks in New York City. So, while tariffs kick in and Americans are shipped off to Salvadoran gulags, here are a few ways of looking at Broadway in the context of our present moment. In short, it's not great.

Tourism

According to The Broadway League's data from the 2023-2024, around 66% of Broadway-goers were tourists. Breaking out further, that's 45% from areas of the US beyond the NY metropolitan area and 21% internationally. Last year, that 21% accounted for 2.62 million tickets sold. As Playbill.com puts it, this "is the second highest total in three decades, no doubt part of New York City's continued success in tourism recovery."

You see this word a lot, "recovery." Of course, Broadway was kneecapped by the pandemic, and there were real and sincere fears that it might never recover. The data shows that the industry is bouncing back, even storming back in ways. But there is a risk of this coming undone.

Here is US tourism data from analyst Jeff Asher.

While this chart aggregates data from a few key international airports, let's zero in on New York's JFK. Between March 15 and April 3, 2024 and 2025, JFK saw a drop in international travelers of -16.6%. In other words, 16.6% fewer international travelers came through JFK between 3/15 and 4/3 in 2025 than in 2024.

What might account for this? There are plenty of things one can point to, including the current administration's antagonism toward other countries, fears about measles, and the increased prices brought on by tariffs. But in general, this is very bad news, with ramifications beyond just Broadway.

Data is still being reported, and of course it is extremely early, but in an industry that relies on international tourists for a fifth of its revenue, any dramatic decline in travel eats at already slim margins.

Tariffs

I don't want to just wave a hand and broadly say that tariffs are bad for Broadway. They are bad for everyone and everything! Everything gets more expensive! But I think that there are key ways in which tariffs effect Broadway in particular.

First, there are the costs of production. If you've spent time amongst theatre people, you'll know that a strong characteristic of us is a kind of thriftiness. Personally, I have worn costumes that sat for years in storage before landing on my back instead of being bought new. But sets need to be built, costumes need to be mended, laundry needs to be run, Playbills need to be printed. Impending tariffs threaten the supply chains of all of the consumable products often used in a Broadway house. While there are goods that are reused and repurposed, there are always new things bought for a show, often things that are used up, and these things will come under the influence of tariffs. Whether the lumber comes from Canada, the fabric comes from Bangladesh, or the computers are built in Vietnam, Broadway is not uniquely positioned to absorb these rising costs. In fact, the margins are so thin on Broadway that they are uniquely positioned to suffer from these rising costs. Will these mean even further increased ticket prices? Will it mean cheaper, corners-cut productions?

Second, there are the indirect economies reliant on Broadway that will be effected by the tariffs. While Times Square certainly ain't going anywhere, the rising costs of doing business may deter locals and tourists alike from engaging with the area synonymous with Broadway.

The tariffs are bad and dumb, and they will make everything worse. Broadway is not a business that can easily respond to disruption.

Immigration

The fascist authoritarian regime disappearing people off the streets is inherently at odds with an industry historically reliant upon immigrant, working class, and politically progressive constituents. While there are ambient characteristics of the government's approach to immigration that may anger theatre people, it is the direct, serious impacts that our racist, isolationist nationalism will have that pose immediate risk to how Broadway functions.

Theatre, like many art forms, is victoriously global. Globalism is frequently an inherent aspect of how theatre is studied, created, and produced. Think here of Julie Taymor's tutelage under Indonesian puppeteers that inspired her approach to The Lion King. Think of the 17 Jean Valjean's that sang at the 10th Anniversary show of Les Mis in 1995. Think of Maybe Happy Ending, the Broadway Show Of The Moment, an international show transplanted from South Korea.

Broadway requires artists who often work on short term visas or who often emigrate from dire circumstances. Under a regime intent on questioning the motives of every single immigrant to this country, both legal and sublegal, both citizen and non-citizen, Broadway will suffer from the same kind of brain drain that universities are already experiencing. Just as graduate students and professors are being asked by their universities not to leave the country for fear that they don't know that they could come back, Broadway's handful of international artists may too be met with numerous obstacles.

In spite of cringe, Lin-Manuel was correct in writing "Immigrants, [they] get the job done." New York's entire cultural cache is downstream of Jewish, Dominican, Puerto Rican immigrants, to name a few. Under a more restricted federal government, Broadway will suffer.

There are a couple of other ways I just want to hit on that Broadway may be at risk during a Trump presidency. I don't mean to be too speculative, but I just want to offer a few things that individuals and organizations can build resilience to.

Despite the way that the pandemic destroyed indoor events like Broadway, there is little evidence left at the theatre that this was ever a concern. Masking is certainly not normalized, and the encouragement not to see a show if you are sick is not as much in the foreground as it was before. I am not necessarily saying that Broadway needs to continue to act like there is a pandemic happening (although we certainly all should be masking more), but I am saying that the greatest evidence that the Trump administration will botch the next pandemic is that they botched the first one. Other great evidence includes the grifter-clowns he's got running the show. Even if the administration dismisses the threat of disease, like they did last time, Broadway needs to be prepared for what could happen if New York faces another health crisis. Are the theaters thinking about this? Are the unions?

We also cannot ignore the antagonistic approach Trump has to New York City in general. Attempting to bribe Mayor Adams to engage in more stringent immigration enforcement, stripping research funding from Columbia, and threatening to hamstring the MTA over congestion pricing are all things with negative downstream effects for the city at large. And generally, things that are bad for New York City are bad for Broadway, though in more oblique ways.

It is a goal of mine to make personal the often difficult to personalize. It can be easy to sift through headlines and feel a sense ofuneasy detachment, even for things that ostensibly effect you. I find sometimes that I defensively construct this detachment by over intellectualizing.

But in every way that we interact with the world, there are downstream effects of the choices made by irresponsible people in power. And it can be easy to depersonalize things as a means of getting through it. But I believe that the more people, especially people of some privilege, begin to approach the fragility of our systems, the more informed people get, the more active they become. I hope to continue being a place like that. See you soon.